Since the Industrial Revolution, so-called labor-intensive work such as manufacturing and construction has been replaced by machines. Predicting that knowledge-labor-intensive industries will also change shape because of machine learning, I am summarizing which industries may be targets.

In economic thinking, the counterpart to labor-intensive industries is capital-intensive industries. “Knowledge work” is a term Drucker used to show the qualitative change in labor after the Industrial Revolution, and there was no concept of knowledge-labor-intensive work. But in an AI-dominated era suggested by the development of deep learning, I think even knowledge work may become an intensive industry.

What is a labor-intensive industry?

A labor-intensive industry is an economics term. Among existing industries, those in which a large share of operations depends on human labor are called labor-intensive industries.

In contemporary Japan, tertiary industries such as commerce and service businesses that provide customer service are considered labor-intensive industries. In the past, manufacturing and construction in Japan were also considered labor-intensive, but with the development of science and technology, tasks once performed by humans can now be performed by machines. As a result, the share occupied by human labor has decreased, and those industries are no longer becoming labor-intensive. Even in today’s service industry, because of developments such as computers, demand for human labor is declining in tasks that can be substituted by machines even if they are intellectual labor, and it is becoming less labor-intensive.

労働集約型産業 - Wikipedia _現代の 日本では接客を行う 商業や サービス業などと言った 第三次産業が労働集約型産業とされている。かつての日本では 製造や 建築も労働集約型産業とされていたが、 科学技術の発達により、そこから従来ならば人間が行ってきた業務を 機械で行…_ja.wikipedia.org

Key points

Industries such as manufacturing were replaced by machines through the Industrial Revolution.

Manufacturing workers did not disappear, though I think they decreased.

Changes in ways of working were required.

Tertiary industries such as services are changing through the development of computers.

Classification of tertiary industries

Major group F: electricity, gas, heat supply, and water

Major group G: information and communications

Major group H: transportation and postal services

Major group I: wholesale and retail

Major group J: finance and insurance

Major group K: real estate and goods rental/leasing

Major group L: academic research, professional and technical services

Major group M: accommodations, eating and drinking services

Major group N: living-related services and entertainment

Major group O: education and learning support

Major group P: medical care and welfare

Major group Q: compound services

Major group R: services not elsewhere classified

Major group S: public service, except elsewhere classified

Major group T: industries unable to be classified

第三次産業 - Wikipedia _クラークは、経済発展につれて 第一次産業から 第二次産業、第三次産業へと産業がシフトしていくことを提示したが、クラークのいう第三次産業には 単純労働も含まれており、後進的な産業が先進的な産業と同じ扱いになっているという批判がある。また、…_ja.wikipedia.org

Industries likely to change and my impressions

Social infrastructure, such as electricity, gas, communication lines, and postal services: optimization of large-scale networks is useful, but a public-service perspective as universal service is necessary.

Information industry: it will continue to be central to change, so labor demand will remain high. But if players cannot keep up with change, they will become legacy. Google, Apple.

Retail: Amazon.

Finance: already changed. The question is what will happen to traders and financial products in the second wave of change. Blockchain may have a stronger aspect as social infrastructure.

Real estate: change is slow. There has been change in the form of real estate media, but from the perspective of knowledge work in the real estate business, the future is still unclear, so it can also be called stable.

Education and medicine: change has been slow. I expect them to face major change from now on. Policy will also have a large effect.

Accommodation and food services: platformers like Amazon may appear. If each company optimizes individually, labor may be cheaper than development costs. There may be a path through becoming communities.

Entertainment: it becomes the target on which post-workers spend money and time. Against that background, I think polarization between large-scale capital and indie will advance. Also, entertainment-ification can occur in every industry.

Research jobs: rather than industry change, changes in research methods may increase major discoveries, as happened with quantum physics and genetics.

Public service: unexpected changes may occur in national defense. Caution is necessary. Improvements can be expected in fields linked with social infrastructure industries. In policy-making processes, discussions may become ideological and deliberation may become impossible.